• Scottish private sector activity growth moderates 
• Renewed fall in new business 
• Price pressures ease 

The Royal Bank of Scotland Growth Tracker signalled a further rise in private sector output across Scotland in June. The headline Business Activity Index, posted above the neutral 50.0 mark, but ticked down to a five-month low of 51.9, from 55.2 in May, reflecting the recent cooldown in service sector activity. The rate at which output expanded across Scotland was also weaker than that observed at the UK level. 

The slowdown in private sector output was accompanied by a fresh fall in new business, which was the first recorded in five months. Employment rose in the latest survey period, but at the second-weakest rate since the current run of expansion began in February 2023. However, inflationary pressures continued to subside as cost burdens rose at the weakest rate in 40 months. 

Judith Cruickshank, Chair, Scotland Board, Royal Bank of Scotland, commented: 

"The Scotland Growth Tracker signalled modest gains in private sector activity during the latest survey period. While the upturn lost momentum, as the service sector observed a notable cooldown in June, the ongoing downturn in the manufacturing sector showed further signs of easing as output was broadly stable, and the downturn in new orders moderated. Additionally, private sector companies continued to raise their staffing levels, albeit the latest uptick was fractional overall. 

“Price pressures continued to abate as the year progressed, Cost burdens rose at the weakest pace since February 2021, and the rate of charge inflation equalled the weakest seen over the same period. Some firms were keen to price competitively in order to generate new sales".

Please see the regional report in full:

Royal Bank of Scotland UK Regional Growth Tracker (PDF, 734KB)