Back to main menu
Search
Search
Overlay

Key findings

  • Royal Bank of Scotland Growth Tracker indicates sustained growth
  • Downturn in new orders petering out
  • Business confidence slides to 23-month low

 

The Scotland Business Activity Index – a seasonally adjusted index that measures the month-on-month change in the combined output of the region’s manufacturing and service sectors – remained broadly unchanged in November, with a reading of 51.1, only slightly below October's reading of 51.3. The headline index signalled an increase in private sector activity in each month since the start of the year, with the rate of growth exceeding that seen at the UK level. Underlying data again revealing that the uptick was dependent on the solid performance of service sector firms. Manufacturers, meanwhile, again struggled to report growth and slumped further into contraction. Nevertheless, sentiment regarding the year-ahead outlook, although still positive, eased to a near two-year low.

Judith Cruickshank, Chair, Scotland Board, Royal Bank of Scotland, commented:

"The Scottish private sector remained on a growth path towards the end of 2024, buoyed by the robust performance of the service sector. Activity growth remained commendable, and the recent downturn in new orders showed signs of stabilisation. Additionally, the latest survey period recorded job gains, predominantly concentrated within service firms. However, the manufacturing sector, which remains firmly entrenched in contraction, continues to present challenges for Scotland. Furthermore, the latest data revealed a notable intensification of price pressures, which have risen at rates exceeding their historical averages. These escalating inflationary pressures could pose headwinds to growth, particularly as confidence levels retreated further in November, hinting at a potentially more subdued outlook on the horizon."

 

Please see the regional report in full:

Royal Bank of Scotland UK Regional Growth Tracker (PDF, 1,855KB)

Related articles

All Economics articles

This material is published by NatWest Group plc (“NatWest Group”), for information purposes only and should not be regarded as providing any specific advice. Recipients should make their own independent evaluation of this information and no action should be taken, solely relying on it. This material should not be reproduced or disclosed without our consent. It is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction in which this would be prohibited. Whilst this information is believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by NatWest Group and NatWest Group makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) of any kind, as regards the accuracy or completeness of this information, nor does it accept any responsibility or liability for any loss or damage arising in any way from any use made of or reliance placed on, this information. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of NatWest Group, as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Copyright © NatWest Group. All rights reserved.

scroll to top