We see the number of consumers who are concerned about the cost-of-living crisis fall 4% year-on-year, and we predict this will continue in 2025 (Two Ears One Mouth, Nov 24). However, this leaves 77% of consumers concerned about cost-of-living, and around 38% still claim they are planning their meals and food spend more carefully​. So, how is meat and dairy fairing?
 

If we look at the retail landscape, total grocery saw value growth of 4.0% year-on-year (Kantar, 52 w/e 03 November 2024). However, despite slight volume increases (+0.8%), this growth is predominantly still being driven by higher prices (+3.2%). The out-of-home market sees value growth also, but this is through consumers increasing both their frequency of trips and spend per trip.
 

Within retail, for meat, fish and poultry (MFP) positively volumes have also seen a slight increase of 0.6% in the last year, aiding value growth (+4.0%) alongside higher prices (+3.4%) (Kantar, 52 w/e 03 Nov 24). Looking at individual proteins we can see what is driving this volume growth, and the impact of differing consumer spending abilities. The cheapest protein, chicken, has contributed the most volumes to the category in the last year, but this is followed by the most expensive red meat, lamb, seeing the fastest volume growth.
 

This is also reflected in cut performance with premium cut roasting, and value cut mince, both gaining volumes for the red meats year-on-year. However, the middle ground such as diced and stewing beef, and pork and lamb chops are being squeezed. 

Alongside the need for value and treating, we see convenience increasing in importance. The number of meal servings chosen because of speed is at its highest level in the last 5 years (Kantar Usage, 52 w/e 12 May 24) and prep time continues to fall in the kitchen.
 

Coupled with this, consumers are simplifying their meal choices through fewer items making it on to the plate. Within red meat this is reflected in a small (4% of total red meat volumes) but significantly growing (+13%) area which is Added Value – Marinades, Ready to Cook and Sous Vide.
 

Within retail, for dairy, during the 52 weeks ending 2 November 2024, volumes of cow’s dairy declined by 0.6% year-on-year (NIQ Homescan POD, Total GB). Growth in average prices (+0.5%) was not quite enough to balance volume losses as spend on cow’s dairy declined 0.1% according to Nielsen.

Spend on cow's milk continues to decrease (-6.3%) and volumes declined by 1.8% year-on-year (52 w/e 2 November 2024). Semi-skimmed cow’s milk accounts for 59.6% of volume sales but contributed most to the decline, while whole milk continued to see growth (+2.3%), driven by an increase in buyers as well as an increase in purchase frequency.

Cow’s cheese remains in growth with volumes up 3.8% year-on-year, and spend to rising by 3.2% (NIQ Homescan POD, Total GB). Cheddar saw a 4.1% increase in volumes sold driven by an increase in volume per shop up 2.9%. This drove cow’s cheese performance as cheddar accounts for 41.7% of all cow cheese sold. Cow cheese other also saw strong growth driven by cottage cheese.

Cow's butter saw a volume decline of 3.5%, despite a decrease of average prices (-0.2%). However, block butter saw volumes increase by 6.0%. Plant-based spread volumes increased, likely due to switching gains from cow’s butter as they were £2.06/kg cheaper.
 

Volume sales of cow's yoghurt, yoghurt drinks and fromage frais continue to grow, now up 6.4% and spend increased by 8.2%. Despite increasing prices, most of the cow’s yoghurt categories saw volume growth. Standard plain yoghurts grew the fastest, up 22.7% while healthy yoghurts saw the largest increase up 10.7 thousand tonnes year-on-year (NIQ Homescan POD, Total GB).
 

Cow's cream volumes grew by 2.5% year-on-year, primarily driven by existing shoppers buying more. Double, sour cream and crème fraiche all experienced volume growth.
 

Looking Ahead to 2025

With consumer confidence on the rise, the outlook for meat and dairy demand appears promising. By staying close to market trends and evolving consumer preferences, agriculture businesses could position themselves for continued success in the year ahead.

Find out how we could support you